COP27: from Bad to Worse; the Strength to Deal with the Threats

Roberto Palea 
Former President of the Centro Studi sul Federalismo (CSF) and a member of UAERE, European Association of Environmental and Resources Economists

Judging from the facts, the COP 27 in Sharm el- Sheikh ended in abject failure as regards the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels.

In the peak years of the Sars-Covid virus pandemic (2019-2021), CO₂ emissions stabilised following the slowdown in production and the reduction in transport and urban mobility.

As soon as the effects of the pandemic subsided and the economy slowly began to recover, CO₂ emissions also picked up pace again; this situation has worsened considerably due to the energy crisis, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical tensions between Russia and the NATO countries.

In the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015, in line with the proposal from the authoritative IPCC, the set objective was to keep the climate temperature increase well below 2.0°C compared to the pre-industrial era; at the subsequent COP 26 in Glasgow, this limit was specified at 1.5°C, which corresponds to CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere of 450 ppm (parts per million).

At that time (2015), the increase in the temperature of the planet compared to pre-industrial times was estimated at 0.9°C, which corresponds to CO₂ emissions of 400 ppm.

Currently the WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) has estimated that the planet’s average temperature has grown by 1.15°C and in July 2022, the Air Force estimated that CO₂ emissions stood at 417 ppm, according to the survey of the European satellite Copernicus. 

We run the risk, in just a few years’ time, of reaching those thresholds for temperatures (1.5°C) and emissions considered by the IPCC as representing a serious risk for the very survival of human life on Earth.

Moreover, environmental disasters, such as land desertification, and extreme events across the globe, such as fires, floods, long periods of drought followed by sudden devastating rainfall, are becoming increasingly frequent.

The recent blizzards and winds in the United States and along its east coast not only affected New York, with peak temperatures of 57 degrees Celsius in various mountainous areas, but also paralysed the entire country.

These occurrences made us think not only of serious, extraordinary events, but of events due to structural changes in the climate (scientists spoke of a Polar Vortex originating from the warming of the Arctic, with the polar ice melting at a rate four times faster than known beforehand).

These facts would amply justify our fears that we are already experiencing an environmental disaster, having already passed the “point of no return”.

It was then argued by some commentators that the total failure of COP 27 could be avoided with the legitimately desired launch of a “Loss and Damage Fund”, financed by rich countries in favour of those under-developed countries that have suffered the consequences of pollution (including China).

In reality, however, there is no current agreement for this Fund, that has been on the agenda since 2009 (agreements are always deferred from one COP to the next), since no definitive decision was reached in Sharm el-Sheikh either and, according to tradition, all discussions were once again deferred to the scheduled COP in Dubai in 2023!

Given this gloomy backdrop, we must strive not to yield to any temptation of inertia and indifference, and face the future, whether easy or difficult, with realism and confidence.

Meanwhile, federalists must not give up, but, if anything, merely defer their proposal for a global agreement – in the hope of a more favourable geopolitical situation – which would include:

• The promotion of a global institution, the World Environment Organization (WEO), managed by a high-level independent Authority (following the example of the ECSC in the process of European unification) which operates under the control of the UN with the aim of countering global warming (and managing the funds pledged by the G20)
• Revaluation of the W.T.O. (World Trade Organization) to negotiate an adequate carbon price for each country and support the proposal made by the OECD for a global tax on the activity of multinational companies
• Encourage the World Bank to issue Green Bonds in the form of SDRs (Special Drawing Rights) in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.

In response to the onset of the new international geopolitical situation, we need to support appropriate and adequate measures for 2023 to achieve the following aims: a) restoration of peace between Russia and Ukraine and their respective allies; b) dealing with the climate, energy and food crisis.

In order to re-establish peace between Russia and Ukraine, a rapid “ceasefire” is required and, then, an authoritative external mediator needs to be chosen. The latter will need to exploit the current situation caused by stalemate on the field of battle and by the endless drain on the two Parties’ financial and economic resources, in order to get the contenders to accept reciprocal concessions, including territorial ones. He or she will also need explicit support from China and guarantees from the EU, the United States, NATO and the UN, to the proposal that all ideas of deploying missiles in East European countries aimed at Russia will be abandoned. Furthermore, the contested territories will need to become a demilitarised zone under the control of the UN.

It is clear that the current war effort and the prospect of rebuilding a war-damaged Ukraine involves and will involve an enormous financial commitment by the West, which will penalise its ability to deal with the global climate and energy crisis, as well as the global food crisis.

The African Union and Egypt will also need to be engaged for the production of electricity in the sub-Saharan area, which includes the Sahara Desert (9,200,000 km²), using photovoltaic and wind energy sources. Clean, low-cost electricity will need to be produced on a large scale and without interruption, with any surplus over local requirements being transported to Europe through existing power lines.

In addition, solar and wind sourced electricity can be converted into hydrogen using fuel-cell technology, and transported to Europe, via Morocco, through existing pipelines that connect Spain with the rest of Europe.

Using electricity produced through alternative sources, the abundant water resources existing in the subsoil can be brought to the surface, or power plants can be run for the desalination of sea water.

Large tracts of land could be irrigated and used for agricultural purposes to feed African populations.

New technologies in modern agriculture, assisted by modern cultivation and transport machinery, would increase the land’s capacity for production many times over, to the benefit of the community.

In general, the energy crisis could lead to an alternative to natural gas, through greater energy efficiency and the transition to clean energy sources, especially in the energy-intensive sector (such as steel production and the iron and steel industries).

The United States has just passed the Inflation Reduction Act, and is developing its energy resources to bolster its position against gas price volatility and global energy tensions.

Technological development will provide the world with many solutions to improve energy saving and efficiency. Many industries are turning to next generation technology, including sodium batteries or thin-film solar panels instead of the silicon type.

And steel producers are investing to use green hydrogen in the iron and steel industry.

Urban and extra-urban mobility will be based on electric or hydrogen vehicles, redesigning cities “on a human scale”.

Finally, technological developments have again raised the question about possible energy production through nuclear fusion plants, which seems to have proved successful in experimental work.

Moreover, many Latin American states, including Brazil, are implementing ambitious plans to save the rainforests and improve performance of the Amazon’s “green lung”.

Technological research and the transfer of the latest technologies to countries with poorer facilities may turn out to be a successful weapon in improving the prospects of the entire planet in terms of climate and pollution.

It is an extremely broad topic: in Nature (vol. 612 of 22/29 December 2022), Andreas Goldthau and Simone Tagliapietra have published a Summary of their latest, highly recommended works on Energy Crisis issues and solutions for adoption in 2023 to try to save the Planet.

These works, which are too extensive, specialised and in-depth to be summarised here, clarify the enormous potential of the latest technologies that could be adopted to help with humanity’s survival, thus boosting the hopes of all of us.