European Federalism: a Health Check-up after 2,5 Years of Crises

Yannis Karamitsios
Legal officer for the European Commission, active member of the European Federalist Movement

It is advisable nowadays to undergo regular health check-ups to make sure that our bodies and minds remain on the right track – and also see what should be corrected. By this text we will attempt to carry out a similar check with the European federalist cause. How healthy is it, where does it stand, what are its successes and failures after 2,5 years of crises? And how should we move on?

We will shortly examine its advancements and setbacks, against the background of several unprecedented crises in the 21^st century: the pandemic, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the spiraling food and energy crises, the high inflation, and also the ascent of an undemocratic axis at global level.

1. The Conference on the Future of Europe

The Conference on the Future of Europe involved European citizens, civil society, and institutions, who debated for one year as equal partners. It ended on 9 May 2022 with the presentation of the final report to the Presidents of the European Parliament, the Council and the European Commission. It included 49 proposals consisting of 325 concrete measures proposed by the participating citizens. The European Parliament adopted a Resolution in June 2022 proposing amendments to the Treaties.  It stressed the abolition of the Member States' veto powers in most areas, and more European integration in health, energy, defence, and social and economic policies.

The Council reacted slower and less enthusiastically.  It merely started general discussions on the basis of a ‘comprehensive preliminary technical assessment’ of the proposals. The European Council noted on 23-24 June 2022 that the EU institutions should ensure that there is ‘an effective follow-up’ to the final report.

The European Commission, on its part, has been more specific. On 14 September 2022 its President Von der Leyen sent a letter of intent to the President of the European Parliament Metsola, with a list of legislative initiatives largely inspired by the outcome of the Conference on the Future of Europe. The list includes “proposals stemming directly from the citizens’ recommendations, such as an initiative on mental health”. The Commission will include “Citizens’ Panels in its policy-making toolbox, so that they can make recommendations before certain key policy proposals, starting with the upcoming work on food waste”.[1]

We could call the Conference a good starting point and partial success, because it really committed the EU institutions to follow-up and deliver results on its original ideas. The Citizens’ Panels, that were central to the Conference, will become a regular feature of our democratic life. However, as the Council remains a rather conservative player, we should not expect any spectacular federalist gains. It is not even certain yet whether it will abolish the national veto on foreign affairs, despite the support to that proposal by President Macron and Chancellor Scholz. After a meeting of EU affairs ministers in Brussels on 20 September 2022, Mikuláš Bek, the minister of European affairs of the Czech Republic, which currently holds the EU’s rotating presidency, said he only foresaw “limited progress” and that “he is not too optimistic.”[2] On the other hand, we should definitely remain optimistic concerning further European integration in areas such as green energy, health, or sustainable development.

2. A federalist German coalition

In November 2021, the coalition government in Germany of Social Democrats, Greens and the liberal FDP announced that it would push for the development of a sovereign European federation. Their coalition agreement document sees the Conference on the Future of Europe as a starting point to reform the EU. It sets out a very ambitious objective, namely that the conference should lead to a constitutional process and ultimately to the “development of a federal European state”.

This idea was put in limbo during the months that followed the Russian aggression and the ensuing energy and inflation crises. However, some of its elements revived again in a speech of Chancellor Sholz in Prague on 29 August 2022, where he supported the amendment of the EU treaties to abolish the unanimity rule, and also introduced the idea of a geopolitical union and the reform of the institutions. He also supported the EU enlargement to the Western Balkans and Ukraine and Moldova.

3. The first Eurobonds and the pandemic recovery package

Another taboo that was broken thanks to the extraordinary needs of the pandemic, was the common borrowing of all EU member states under a joint scheme and with the same terms and interest rates. On 21 July 2020, EU leaders agreed on a comprehensive package which included an extraordinary €750 billion recovery effort, the “Next Generation EU”. Its main objective is to tackle the socio-economic consequences of the pandemic and to transform the EU through its major policies, particularly the European Green Deal, the digital revolution and resilience. 

Indeed, in October of that year, the European Commission issued a €17 billion inaugural social bond under the ‘EU SURE’ instrument to help protect jobs. The issuing consisted of two bonds, with €10 billion due for repayment in October 2030 and €7 billion due for repayment in 2040. There was very strong investor interest and the bonds were more than 13 times oversubscribed. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen highlighted in her statement the historic character of that moment: “This unprecedented step matches the extraordinary times we are living in.”

4. A European health union

While health used to be exclusive national competence, the situation has changed thanks to the pandemic. The European Commission is now building a European Health Union, that aims to ‘better protect the health of our citizens; equip the EU and its Member States to better prevent and address future pandemics; and improve resilience of Europe’s health systems’[3]. It includes key-initiatives to develop, produce and procure medical countermeasures before and during a health crisis, a European Health Data Space, a pharmaceutical strategy to support research and technologies that reach patients, and a plan to beat cancer.

Moreover, in June 2020 the European Council mandated the Commission to organise the joint procurement of Covid-19 vaccines, and negotiate price, quantities and other conditions with the suppliers. In this way, another national competence was practically abolished and the EU became the sole negotiator and handler of those vaccines for all EU citizens.

Thanks to the pandemic, health is now addressed as a cross-border issue with international implications. For the first time in history, health policies have been placed on the centre of the deliberations about our common European future. That unprecedented situation has equipped the federalist movement with one more argument in favour of abolishing national approaches and seeking supra-national solutions.

5. The Russian aggression against Ukraine: the toughest test and greatest opportunity

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has put to test European unity and resilience. It was a reminder of EU’s weak geopolitical character, lack of joint military forces and institutional non-flexibility. However, the EU managed to react in a decisive manner, despite the setbacks.

Since February 2022, and in co-ordination with the USA, UK and other western partners, it adopted six sanction packages and one ‘maintenance and alignment’ package imposing tough measures on Russian economy and society. These included import and export bans of many key-commodities, blockage of Russian banks from the SWIFT system, closure of European airspace to Russian aircraft, suspension of key investments in Russian economy, individual sanctions on hundreds of oligarchs and affiliates of the Putin regime, and also abolition of visa facilitations. Nord Stream 2, the big project of pipeline-gas transfer from Russia to Germany, is dead. Imports of crude oil and petroleum products will be fully banned by early 2023. Imports of Russian natural gas have been reduced drastically, from approximately 40% of total EU natural gas imports down to less than 11% as of early September 2022.

However, those measures were not always easy to adopt. Some Member States with high exposure to Russian fossil fuels or other commodities raised objections – some of them were reasonable, while other were rather political. Orban’s Hungary continues to act as Putin’s Trojan horse in the EU. Germany and France remain hesitant to offer decisive military support to Ukraine, contrary to the USA and the UK, which have demonstrated a much different ‘body language’. Moreover, as of September 2022, the EU member states are still divided over the European Commission’s plan to confront the spiking energy prices and cap them to a certain degree.

However, most impressive was Europe’s realisation that it needs to advance as a true defence union. The time of naivety is over. Finland and Sweden rushed to apply for NATO membership. Germany abolished its post-World War II pacifist self-limitation and established a special €100 billion fund to upgrade its under-equipped armed forces. President Macron used the French Presidency of the European Council in the first half of 2022 to push forward on European defence policy, despite the reluctance of some EU governments. On 11 March 2022, EU leaders agreed to “resolutely bolster investment” in defence capabilities and “substantially increase” defence spending across the bloc. That summit marked an unprecedented geopolitical situation that has led the EU to activate a real dedefence policy, according to a diplomat involved in that meeting. The EU is now not only committed to spend more on defence, but also to spend better[4].

6. A moderate health status – Time for a constitutional assembly

The check-up that we mentioned in our introduction would rather confirm a moderate health status for European federalism. If it were a human being, we could describe it as a middle-aged man, overweight and in bad physical condition, but who has finally started exercising and following a healthier diet after a long period of inaction.

There has been good progress in the desire to improve the institutions, to vote for the first truly European lists, to borrow, procure, share, negotiate and spend money and resources together, and also to defend our common values and interests as a union. Coronavirus and Putin worked as our wake-up calls. On the other hand, we are still short of taking a truly federalist turn. The European ship is still very heavy – it cannot change course swiftly. The reactionary governments of Hungary and Poland keep blocking progress. Italy replaced Mario Draghi’s government with a eurosceptic right-wing coalition. Germany and France are not yet ready to lead a truly European defence policy. Member states still have very different ideas about how to tackle the energy crisis, the Russian aggression or the Chinese assertiveness. The Conference on the Future of Europe is going to deliver rather modest results – and certainly not a federal geopolitical Europe.

We, federalists, must keep pushing for the creation of a European federal and sovereign state. This is not a luxury or utopic vision anymore, it is a necessity. Global powers emerge with completely different values and interests than ours – and we are not only talking about Russia and China anymore, but also India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and one or more African unions in the near future. We will have to compete and also co-operate with them as a big power. In the book that I published in December 2021, entitled ‘Time for a European Federation’, I argue that our continent is facing several existential challenges, namely: our comparative economic decline, food security, energy security, demographic stagnation, and losing the global race of the fourth industrial revolution. We can best address them only as a federal union.

We must thus turn the Conference on the Future of Europe into a Constitutional Conference for the evolution of the European Union into a European Federation. That conference would consist of members of the European Parliament, members of national parliaments, European governments, representatives of civil society and professional organisations. It would produce the first European constitution. Every interested EU member and other European democratic states would hold referenda to join that new state. If more than ten of them would vote yes, then that new state would be born. Germany and France would definitely need to be part of its core. The others who would prefer to stay out, could continue as a European Union together with the new federal state.

The time is ripe for our geopolitical breakthrough. History is accelerating and cannot wait for us.

^[1] https://state-of-the-union.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-09/SOTEU_2022_Letter_of_Intent_EN_0.pdf

^[2] https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-unanimity-rules-are-here-for-now-despite-chatter/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR0Xtv6PnENoEHz_b_aRfC1DsrvTASA1SaT-cWA8-ooGH55B3udE_JwQ8ak

^[3] https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/promoting-our-european-way-life/european-health-union_en

^[4] https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/ukraine-war-eu-presidency-boosts-french-defence-plans/