In Ukraine, It Is Time for the EU to Make Its Voice Heard in the Peace Talks*

Antonio Padoa Schioppa
Emeritus Professor of History of Law at the University of Milan, Italy. Former President of the Centro Studi sul Federalismo

The ongoing war in Ukraine is proving to be ever more frightening. Not solely because of atrocities perpetrated by the invader (now disclosed by the media in real time, except in Russia), but also due to the growing risk of escalation which could result in a nuclear world war. Both Vladimir Putin's Russia and Volodymyr Zelensky's Ukraine seem to be eager to continue the warfare, each hoping for a final victory on the battlefield. Western States have intervened with the heaviest economic and financial sanctions in history and a strong provision of weapons to the heroic Ukrainian counteroffensive, avoiding direct intervention to reduce the risk of a fatal escalation. However, everyone understands that it will be necessary to end the conflict by negotiation. Indeed, on the one hand, Putin’s original plan to conquer (or forcibly control) Ukraine has failed; on the other hand, Ukraine’s claim of recovering Crimea and the two provinces of the Donbas appears to be unrealistic, if not impossible.

In this context, two potential strategies come into sight. The first one would aim at fully defeating Russia to prevent the threat of future annexation attempts by force in Europe. This seems to be the plan of most of the US administration’s officials, apparently currently shared by President Biden himself (even though, as in the past, there is no unanimous position regarding Russia in the US).

The second one aims, conversely, at launching, as soon as possible, a negotiation concerning the possible contents of a Peace Agreement. In the first place, the latter would define new territorial borders between Russia and Ukraine, and also would ensure international guarantees to Ukraine’s independence, stronger than the ones contained in the 1994 Treaty that Russia violently breached. These guarantees should not be signed exclusively by Russia and Ukraine, but also by the United States of America, the European Union (or, at least, a group of EU member states), China, India, and Turkey, within the UN framework. Once the Agreement is signed, sanctions against Russia could be removed.

Clearly, not only is the first option probably unrealistic without a direct intervention of the US, but it would also dramatically prolong the war, its sufferance, and the related extremely serious military and economic threats. For this reason, it would be desirable for Europe to urgently promote a concrete peace initiative. The European countries are much more united than how could be imagined only two months ago, and are proving an extraordinary humanitarian solidarity towards the Ukraine under attack. Obviously, if the European Union had built a common army in the last decades instead of its 27 uncoordinated national armies, which mobilize twice the economic resources spent by Russia for its military, the European peace-keeping operation would have had more credit. To that regard, maybe this crisis has at last brought up a change, and it is hoped that the additional military expenditures just decided in France, Italy and Germany will be mainly dedicated to a single common European defense, and as such will be included within the EU institutional framework. Nevertheless, Europe can immediately play a crucial diplomatic role concerning its relations with Russia, and also with China and India, based on a multilateral and shared conception of international relations, that is necessary and urgent despite the different nature and political and ideological structure of their regimes.

A peace-seeking European intervention is possible, but under one condition: the EU must act with one voice. We must remember that this war is occurring in Europe, and that especially the European countries have to bear the risks, both military, and financial and economical, because of their energy, gas and fertilizer imports from Ukraine and Russia.

Emmanuel Macron’s victory is crucial for the EU, since its very existence would have been challenged by Marine Le Pen’s election. Now it is time for at least the French, Italian and German governments, and also for the EU Parliament and Commission, to support together a peace initiative. This is possible. And it is also proper that, even within the NATO framework (currently necessary to our safety), the EU partners gain at last a strategic autonomy and are entitled to have an influence even on the US choices.

The peace design should include the strengthening of multilateral policies and institutions within the UN framework, as well as the resumption of shared and manageable initiatives on disarmament, that Biden has relaunched after Donald Trump’s defeat, but that could be challenged again in the US itself. In a similar way, a global multilateral approach should be adopted to tackle climate change, that threatens mankind’s survival. 

* This article was published in Il Sole 24 Ore on April 28, 2022